What Is a Sunk Cost? 什么是沉没成本？

A sunk cost is money that has already been spent and cannot be recovered. In business, the axiom that one has to "spend money to make money" is reflected in the phenomenon of sunk cost. A sunk cost differs from future costs that a business may face, such as decisions about inventory purchase costs or product pricing. Sunk costs are excluded from future business decisions because they will remain the same regardless of the outcome of a decision.

沉没成本是已经花掉并且无法收回的钱。在商业中，“花钱才能赚钱”这一公理体现在沉没成本现象上。沉没成本不同于企业可能面临的未来成本，例如有关库存采购成本或产品定价的决策。沉没成本被排除在未来的商业决策之外，因为无论决策结果如何，它们都将保持不变。

Key Takeaways要点

• Sunk costs are those which have already been incurred and which are unrecoverable.

• 沉没成本是指已经发生且无法收回的成本。

• In business, sunk costs are typically not considered when making future decisions, as they are seen as irrelevant to current and future budgetary concerns.

• 在商业中，在做出未来决策时通常不考虑沉没成本，因为它们被视为与当前和未来的预算问题无关。

• Sunk costs are in contrast to relevant costs, which are future costs that have yet to be incurred.

• 沉没成本与相关成本形成对比，相关成本是尚未发生的未来成本。

• The sunk cost fallacy is a psychological barrier that ties people to unsuccessful endeavors simply because they've committed resources to it.

• 沉没成本谬误是一种心理障碍，它将人们与不成功的努力联系起来，仅仅是因为他们已经投入了资源。

• Examples of sunk costs include salaries, insurance, rent, nonrefundable deposits, or repairs (as long as each of those items is not recoverable).

• 沉没成本的示例包括工资、保险、租金、不可退还的押金或维修费用（只要这些项目中的每一项都不可收回）。

Understanding Sunk Costs 理解沉没成本

A sunk cost refers to money that has already been spent and cannot be recovered. A manufacturing firm, for example, may have several sunk costs, such as the cost of machinery, equipment, and the lease expense on the factory. Sunk costs are excluded from a sell-or-process-further decision, which is a concept that applies to products that can be sold as they are or can be processed further.

沉没成本是指已经花掉并且无法收回的钱。例如，一家制造公司可能有许多沉没成本，例如机器、设备的成本和工厂的租赁费用。沉没成本被排除在销售或进一步加工的决策之外，这是一个适用于可以按原样出售或可以进一步加工的产品的概念。

When making business decisions, organizations should only consider relevant costs, which include the future costs that still needed to be incurred. The relevant costs are contrasted with the potential revenue of one choice compared to another. To make an informed decision, a business only considers the costs and revenue that will change as a result of the decision at hand. Because sunk costs do not change, they should not be considered.

在进行业务决策时，组织应仅考虑相关成本，其中包括未来仍需要发生的成本。相关成本与一种选择和另一种选择的潜在收入形成对比。 为了做出明智的决定，企业只需要考虑因手头所做的决定导致发生变化的成本和收入。 因为沉没成本不会改变，所以不应该考虑。

Types of Sunk Costs 沉没成本的类型

All sunk costs are fixed costs but not all fixed costs are sunk costs. The difference is that sunk costs cannot be recovered. If equipment can be resold or returned at the purchase price, for example, it's not a sunk cost.

所有沉没成本都是固定成本，但并非所有固定成本都是沉没成本。不同的是，沉没成本是无法收回的。例如，如果设备可以按购买价格转售或退回，则这不是沉没成本。

Sunk costs don't only apply to businesses as individual consumers can incur sunk costs as well. Let's say you buy a theater ticket for $50 but at the last minute can't attend. The $50 you spent would be a sunk cost but would not factor into whether or not you buy theater tickets in the future. In general, businesses pay more attention to fixed and sunk costs than people, as both types of costs impact profits.

沉没成本不仅适用于企业，因为个人消费者也可能承担沉没成本。假设您以 50 美元的价格购买了一张剧院门票，但在最后一刻不能参加。您花费的 50 美元将是沉没成本，但不会影响您将来是否购买剧院门票。一般来说，企业比个人更关注固定成本和沉没成本，因为这两种成本都会影响利润。

Sunk costs also cover certain expenses that are committed but yet to pay. Imagine a company that has entered into a contract to buy 1,000 pounds of raw materials for the next six months. Suppose the company is contractually obligated to uphold its end of the deal. In that case, the raw materials are a sunk cost whether the company has paid for them or not because the company will incur the costs regardless of what the company decides to do with the materials.

沉没成本还包括已承诺但尚未支付的某些费用。想象一家公司签订了一份合同，在接下来的六个月内购买 1,000 磅原材料。如果公司根据合同有义务保证进行交易，那么无论公司是否支付了原材料，原材料都是沉没成本，因为无论公司决定如何处理这些材料，公司都会承担成本。

Sunk Cost Fallacy 沉没成本谬误

The sunk cost fallacy is the improper mindset a company or individual may have when working through a decision. This fallacy is based on the premise that committing to the current plan is justified because resources have already been committed. This mistake may result in improper long-term strategic planning decisions based on short-term committed costs.

沉没成本谬误是公司或个人在做出决定时可能持有的不当心态。这种谬误基于这样一个前提，即承诺当前计划是合理的，因为资源已经投入。这个错误可能会导致基于短期承诺成本的不正确影响长期战略规划决策。

Imagine a non-financial example of a college student trying to determine their major. A student may declare as an accounting major, only to realize after two accounting classes that this is not the career path for them. The sunk cost fallacy would make the student believe committing to the accounting major is worth it because resources have already been spent on the decision. In reality, the student should only evaluate the courses remaining and courses required for a different major.

想象一个非金融大学生试图确定他们的专业的示例。一个学生可能宣称自己主修会计，但在上了两门会计课后才意识到这不是他们的职业道路。沉没成本谬误会让学生相信选择会计专业是值得的，因为资源已经花在了这个决定上。这个错误可能会导致基于短期承诺成本的不正确而影响长期战略规划决策。实际上，学生应该只评估剩余的课程和不同专业所需的课程。

In business, the sunk cost fallacy is prevalent when management refuses to deviate from original plans, even when those original plans fail to materialize. The sunk cost fallacy incorporates investor emotions that cause otherwise irrational decision-making.

在商业中，沉没成本谬误也很普遍，特别是最初的计划未能实现，而管理层拒绝偏离最初的计划。沉没成本谬误包含了投资者的情绪，这些情绪会导致非理性的决策。

Sunk Cost Fallacy - Psychological Factors 沉没成本谬误—心理因素

There are five common explanations as to why the sunk cost fallacy exists. Here are the psychological reasons that explain why some decision-making processes fail.

关于为什么存在沉没成本谬误，有五种常见的解释。以下是解释为什么某些决策过程失败的心理原因。

• Loss aversion. People may prefer to avoid a loss over an equivalent gain. These people are unwilling to commit to a guaranteed loss (i.e. ending a project that has a sunk cost) due to their low-risk tolerance. All else being equal, some people tend to avoid losses as opposed to seeking gains.

• 损失厌恶。与同等收益相比，人们可能更愿意避免损失。 由于风险承受能力低，这些人不愿意承担有保证的损失（即结束具有沉没成本的项目）。 在其他条件相同的情况下，有些人倾向于避免损失而不是寻求收益。

• Commitment bias. People may stick to a plan because that was simply the original plan that was made. A project is given preferential treatment for no reason other than what was originally decided upon.

• 承诺偏差。人们可能会坚持一个计划，因为那只是最初制定的计划。给予该项目优惠待遇除了它是最初决定的原因外，没有其他原因。

• Waste avoidance. People may want to avoid wasting company resources. Unfortunately, especially in research and development, not all opportunities pay off as due diligence spending may lead nowhere.

• 避免浪费。人们可能希望避免浪费公司资源。不幸的是，尤其是在研发方面，并不是所有的机会都会得到回报，因为尽职调查的支出可能毫无结果。

• Personal decision-making. People may feel emotionally attached to or responsible for a specific project or decision. This creates an emotional bias that the project may turn or the data may be incorrect.

• 个人决策。人们可能会对特定的项目或决定产生情感依恋或责任感。 这种情绪偏见会造成项目转向或数据失真。

How to Avoid Sunk Cost Fallacy 如何避免沉没成本谬误

The sunk cost fallacy can easily be overcome with mindfulness, dedication, and thoughtful planning. Here are a few pointers on overcoming the mental challenge.

沉没成本谬误可以通过正念、专注和深思熟虑的计划轻松克服。这里有一些关于克服心理挑战的建议。

• Frame the problem. The root of decision-making must start with a very specific problem that needs to be solved. This problem should be the central focal point of discussion and should drive all actions from analysts. This step helps frame what is important and what should be recognized as an unimportant distractor.

• 框定问题。 决策的根源必须从需要解决的非常具体的问题开始。 这个问题应该是讨论的中心焦点，应该促使分析师采取所有行动。 此步骤有助于确定什么是重要的，什么应该被认为是不重要的干扰因素。

• Remain independent. When people become emotionally invested in business decisions, they may lose sight of what is happening. Instead of relying on data, they have an unrealistically optimistic outlook on their poor decision. Be mindful that unsuccessful projects don't always reflect the decision-maker, and ultimately making the right decision is what should matter most.

• 保持独立。 当人们对商业决策投入情感时，他们可能会看不到真正发生的事情。 他们没有依赖数据，而是对自己糟糕的判断力抱有不切实际的乐观看法。 请注意，不成功的项目并不总是反映决策者的意见，最终做出正确的决定才是最重要的。

• Trust the data. When comparing several options, a sunk cost is most often excluded. This may feel inappropriate to do, but the process makes sense and delivers the most reliable basis for decision-making.

• 相信数据。 在比较多个选项时，沉没成本通常被排除在外。 这样做可能感觉不合适，但这个过程是有道理的，并为决策提供了最可靠的依据。

• Change risk preference. Some investors actively seek out risk as they believe those types of investments offer the greatest returns. On the other hand, other investors still stick cash under the mattress and would rather forfeit any potential growth out of liquidity protection. By becoming more accepting of risk and not being consumed by risk aversion, investors can more easily come to terms that it is okay to have incurred sunk costs that will never be recoverable.

• 改变风险偏好。 一些投资者积极寻求风险，因为他们认为这些类型的投资可提供最大的回报。 另一方面，其他投资者仍将现金藏在床垫下，出于流动性保护，他们宁愿放弃任何潜在的增长。 通过更加接受风险而不是被风险规避所消耗，投资者可以更容易地接受承担永远无法收回的沉没成本。

Example of Sunk Costs 沉没成本举例

Assume that XYZ Clothing makes baseball gloves. It pays $5,000 a month for its factory lease, and the machinery has been purchased outright for $25,000. The company produces a basic model of a glove that costs $50 and sells for $70. The manufacturer can sell the basic model and earn a $20 profit per unit. Alternatively, it can continue the production process by adding $15 in costs and selling a premium model glove for $90.

假设 XYZ Clothing 生产棒球手套。 它每月支付 5,000 美元的工厂租赁费，而机器则是以 25,000 美元的价格直接购买的。 该公司生产一款基本型号的手套，成本 50 美元，售价 70 美元。 制造商可以出售基本型号并获得每件 20 美元的利润。 或者，它可以通过增加 15 美元的成本来继续优化生产过程，并以 90 美元的价格出售优质手套。

To make this decision, the firm compares the $15 additional cost with the $20 added revenue and decides to make the premium glove to earn $5 more in profit. The cost of the factory lease and machinery are both sunk costs and are not part of the decision-making process.

为做出此决定，该公司将 15 美元的额外成本与 20 美元的增加收入进行比较，并决定制造优质手套以多赚取 5 美元的利润。 工厂租赁和机器的成本都是沉没成本，不属于决策过程的一部分。

If a sunk cost can be eliminated at some point, it becomes a relevant cost and should be a part of business decisions about future events.

如果沉没成本在某个时候可以消除，它就会成为相关成本，并且应该成为未来的业务决策的一部分。

If, for example, XYZ Clothing is considering shutting down a production facility, any of the sunk costs that have end dates should be included in the decision. To decide to close the facility, XYZ Clothing considers the revenue that would be lost if production ends as well as the costs that are also eliminated. If the factory lease ends in six months, the lease cost is no longer a sunk cost and should be included as an expense that can also be eliminated. If the total costs are more than the revenue, the facility should be closed.

例如，如果 XYZ Clothing 正在考虑关闭生产设施，则任何有结束日期的沉没成本都应包含在决策中。 为了做出关闭工厂的决定，XYZ Clothing 考虑了如果生产结束将损失的收入以及可以抵消的成本。 如果工厂租赁在六个月后结束，则租赁成本不再是沉没成本，应计入也可抵消的费用。 如果总成本超过收入，则应关闭该设施。

作者:By ALICIA TUOVILA， Updated August 09, 2022

文章来源：https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sunkcost.asp#toc-how-to-avoid-sunk-cost-fallacy

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